Research area

Unburnable fossil fuels and climate mitigation policies

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5ºC, compared to preindustrial levels. The “remaining carbon budget” from 2020 onward has been estimated at 440 gigatons of CO2 (GtCO2) (Matthews et al. 2021). However, the CO2 potential emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves represent a staggering 2,900 GtCO2, 6.5 times the carbon budget. In practice, and based on the opportunity costs of different fossil fuel reserves, about 89%, 59%, and 58% of existing coal, gas, and oil reserves, respectively, would need to remain under the soil to limit global warming to 1.5°C (Welsby et al. 2021).

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to preindustrial levels. To limit the increase in global mean temperature, the future anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions should not exceed a certain amount—the “remaining carbon budget” (Matthews et al. 2021; Meinshausen et al. 2009). For a 50 percent probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the remaining carbon budget from 2020 onward has been estimated at 440 gigatons of CO2 (GtCO2) (Matthews et al. 2021). For a 2°C limit, the remaining carbon budget amounts to 1,370 GtCO2 for a 50 percent probability (Matthews et al. 2021). However, the CO2 potential emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves represent a staggering 2,900 GtCO2, or approximately 2 times higher than the 2°C carbon budget and approximately 7 times higher for a 1.5°C limit (Matthews et al. 2021; McGlade and Ekins 2015; Welsby et al. 2021). Reserves are producible resources that are “commercially viable,” and current estimates show that their extraction is incompatible with the commitments to limit average global warming (Matthews et al. 2021; McGlade and Ekins 2015; Welsby et al. 2021). In practice, and based on the opportunity costs of different fossil fuel reserves, about 89 percent, 59 percent, and 58 percent of existing coal, gas, and oil reserves, respectively, would need to remain under the soil to limit global warming to 1.5°C (for an extended explanation of the assumptions and associated uncertainties of these estimates and the risks from reserves accountability, see Green and Kuch 2022; Welsby et al. 2021).

If you are interested in doing research on any of these topics, for your Postdoc, PhD, Msc or intership, you are welcome to contact me anytime at marti.orta@ub.edu I would be happy to support you to apply to:

FI and FPU PhD grants

Active Projects research area

  • Cambio Climático

To limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, CO2 emissions must be drastically reduced. Accordingly, approximately 97%, 81%, and 71% of existing coal and conventional gas and oil resources, respectively, need to remain unburned. The UNBURNED project will develop the first global geospatial platform integrating policy-relevant information on fossil fuel reserves, state-level political indicators, biodiversity indicators, and social and economic indicators associated with fossil fuel divestment plans, impacts and activities. The platform will be presented in the COP29 next November and will propose sensitive areas that should remain entirely off-limits to fossil fuel extraction.

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